tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6299673915054984423.post8156142330352510874..comments2024-01-09T22:03:50.563-08:00Comments on Cabana Mobile: If The Top 10 Generate $700mil Can Mobile Games Really Be A $5.4bil Business?Jeremy Lawshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06325900829573448683noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6299673915054984423.post-9791168638936841082009-09-02T04:44:31.717-07:002009-09-02T04:44:31.717-07:00quote:
"Even if this group represented 30% of...quote:<br />"Even if this group represented 30% of worlwide wholesale revenue (which is absurd!)...."<br /><br />Why would that be absurd ? The overall mobile entertainment market is much more fragmented than you seem to realize. There are still lots of local developers, catering to local tastes. And there is also the question of "pink" aka erotic games - sells like hell on any portal (Sex sells, in case anyone still had a doubt), but big publishers don't want to get associated (too much) with this part of the business.<br /><br />If you count the revenue of all those Sexy Poker, Sexy Puzzles and what not into your calculation, your assumption of the TOP10 adding up to only 30% is not THAT absurd anymore. My guess would be in the middle, that is ca. 50% aggregate market share for the top10.<br /><br />Same thing for your assumption of 60% of the consumer price, which, in this case, is likely to be too optimistic.<br /><br />The market is probably somewhere inbetween grossly inflated analyst numbers, but certainly bigger than your rough estimate.<br /><br />The sad truth is: there are too many players sticking their fingers into the wallet and yet do nothing (....operators, anyone ?).<br /><br />A last factual info: you can almost skip Konami: they are distributed via GLU (except for the iPhone).... so their numbers are accounted for in your list :-)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com