Update: Top 10 Mobile Games Publishers WW November '10

Update #1 Nov 24 2010 @ 9:45pm: Based on feedback I've added Capcom to the list & moved Digital Chocolate up in the rankings, while moving Namco down a bit. I've elected to remove Artificial Life because only about 50% of their revenue can be attributed to mobile games. Please... I encourage more feedback in the interest of making this the definitive list.

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• Note that I've added Chinese mobile powerhouse KongZhong to the list... in recent quarters mobile games have become a much more significant portion of the their overall revenue, which is about $145mil over the past 4 quarters.
• Purely from a mobile games perspective, it could be argued that both Artificial Life & Digital Chocolate don't belong on this list, but I'm keeping them here for the time being, while their primary businesses are still mobile games. If current trends persist, Digital Chocolate will quickly evolve into a company that primarily derives revenue from social online gaming (Facebook games).
• Per a previous suggestion from Jon Jordan over at PocketGamer.biz, I'm considering adding Disney/Tapulous to the Top 10... but I'd need some independent confirmation that their combined worldwide mobile games business yields at least 20 something million dollars.
• Overall I'd suggest that the Top 10 are becoming less significant in terms of their contribution to mobile gaming revenue and even in terms of real dollars I've dropped their aggregate revenue to $715mil from $720mil just 3mos ago.

Top 10 Mobile Games Publishers WW August 2010

All numbers are for the most recent 4 quarters for which I have data, at today's exchange rates.

In terms of non-public, guesstimated data, I've moved Chillingo onto this list... due to their boffo performance in the AppStore (see related post)... I'll move them up or down based on community feedback. I've also let Namco slip a bit as the PacMan franchise seems to cooling a bit in the new retail channels. I still have D'Choc hanging on by a thread. Granted, they've rolled a lot of iOS titles, but none appear to be rockstars and their new emphasis on Facebook games is a bit of a tell, right? Do you guys think ngmoco should be on this list? Please, please let me know your thoughts.

Top 10 Mobile Games Publishers WW February 2010

As always, let me know if I'm missing something or if you think I have incorrect data.

Updated: Top 10 Mobile Games Publishers WW

Top 10 Mobile Games Publishers WW

Here's my latest update to this list. You'll notice, based on my recent post estimating Digital Chocolate's numbers, that I've moved them up the list and increased the total revenue estimate of the Top 10.

As always, your feedback is welcome and encouraged.

Updated Top 10 Mobile Games Publishers Worldwide

If The Top 10 Generate $700mil Can Mobile Games Really Be A $5.4bil Business?

Back in March FierceMobileContent and others reported that widely respected telecoms & media analyst Juniper Research had estimated that the worldwide mobile games market had reached $5.4bil in 2008. That's crazy good, right?....or, perhaps it's just crazy.

As I've mentioned recently, I'm generally pretty cynical about big numbers from analysts, pundits, etc...especially when they just don't feel right. As part of the process of digging into this further I recently put together a Top 10 list of mobile games publishers worldwide. It's missing some numbers and the order may need some tweaking (audience participation, please), but I'm very confident about the Top 3, and pretty sure that Namco and G-Mode belong on this list. There could be a place for Capcom Mobile or maybe Konami, but I have no good data on their mobile operations... and I think I may be being generous to Hands-On (which has kinda dropped off the radar recently). Anyway, here's what I came up with (#s are annual revs or 4 most recent quarters):

My feeling is, that if I fill in the blanks here, that the total revenue for the Top 10 comes out to about $700mil. Soon after this list (and some of the companies I mentioned above) the revenue drop-off is pretty steep, with a bunch of companies generating low single digit $millions. If I make a small leap and assume that this group of industry leaders represents 70% of the wholesale revenue in the business...then the wholesale (before distribution channel) value is $1bil. If publishers are keeping 60% of the retail (consumer) price blended across all distribution platforms then the retail mobile games business is worth close to $1.7bil...not anywhere close to $5.4bil. Even if this group represented 30% of worldwide wholesale revenue (which is absurd!) the business would still be over a billion dollars short of the Juniper estimate. (As usual, let me know if there's something I'm missing!)

So what's my point here? I believe that those of us who are vested in mobile entertainment have an obligation to aggressively scrutinize the numbers associated with it, in the interest of clarity and accuracy. It's impossible to properly assess the opportunities in its various sectors (like games), or measure success within them, without proper industry metrics. Hyperbole and froth have not helped this business...in fact they've exacerbated the numerous (too numerous for a young business) boom and bust cycles we've all experienced since the late 90s and fueled substantial skepticism about mobile entertainment amongst those who are generally motivated to invest capital or intellectual property in new media.