BlackBerry Eyed Peas: Check RIM's Sixy New OS

Android Market 50k Apps & Growing

This is a good sign, but I'm hearing from a lot of publishers of paid apps that sales in this channel are still insignificant and there's a lot of concern that it's over-cluttered with low quality CrApps. On the free advertising front I'm hearing more enthusiasm. Also, word is that the nascent carrier curated and billed tabs in the Android Market are performing very very well... let's hope that trend continues.

Check out all the juicy Android Market stats at AndroLib.

Mossberg Talks About The Rise of the Super-Smartphone

Nokia Rev & Net Chart | Key Challenges

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Here are some key challenges that came out of Nokia's Q1 2010 earnings report today:

• Although Apple only sells 40% as many smartphones as Nokia, their sales grew much faster in Q1 (131%) compared with Nokia's (50%)
• CEO Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo: "We continue to face tough competition with respect to the high end of our mobile device portfolio, as well as challenging market conditions on the infrastructure side."
• According to mocoNews Nokia's content service revenues declined 12% compared with Q1 2009
• NAVTEQ sales were up 41% compared with Q1 2009, but down 16% compared with Q4 2009
• US market share has dropped to a paltry 2.7%
• The first Symbian^3 device has been delayed until Q3 2010
• Nokia expects revenues in Q2 2010 to be between €6.7bil & €7.2bil, which is either a 28% or 22% decline from Q2 2009
• Nokia (NOK) stock was down more than 15% in early trading today

Apple & The Balkanization of Content

Andrew Seybold wrote a great piece on FierceMobileContent this morning bemoaning how Apple has taken us back to the future by creating their own version of the walled garden from the bad ol' days (not that long ago) when the only way to get content for mobile devices was through a carrier deck. The smartphone revolution was supposed to liberate us all from those proprietary, AOL-esque environments, and give us access to a universe of content available across devices... right? Well Apple apparently didn't get that memo and/or think that was a good idea, at all... and instead took the opportunity to Think Different.

The crux of the matter, and content owners and creators need to understand this, is that (big headline) Apple is not in the content business... at least not the way most folks think they are. As I'm very fond of saying (eyes roll collectively) Apple is in the reverse razorblade business. Despite having a huge ecosystem of 185k Apps, thousands of movies & TV shows and millions of songs, they run iTunes, as Peter Kafka recently pointed out, as a pretty much a break even business. Content is a means to an end for Apple. Their interest is in creating a hyper-competitive market featuring proprietary, low-priced Apps and other entertainment content, that makes consumers excited about buying every form-factor of their high margin devices... and upgrading them regularly. You know all your friends who are crazy-passionate about Apple products? They've bought into this hook, line and sinker and now that they've spent a significant chunk of their disposable income on music, movies and Apps for their iPhones and iPads, (guess what?) they're never gonna switch to an Android device or a BlackBerry... but in the next year they'll probably spend what's left in their wallets on a new a sexy new razor to show off all those blades.

Content owners and creators who are hoping Apple will winnow the field of Apps or move prices higher in the market, so they may realize better margins, are deluding themselves. The model is all about you fighting for your very life, against hundreds of others, so Apple customers get the best content at the lowest price (why not free). They definitely don't want any one provider getting too much pricing power within their ecosystem. Oh yeah, and remember you're playing in Apple's sandbox... so that tech innovation leveraging their platform, that's giving you some competitive advantage... Apple might just decide one day to roll that out to tout le monde.

For some small companies this highly manipulated, low-price, high-volume market provides a real opportunity. Moreover, the sheer scale of it, the shopping experience and the elegant billing mechanism makes it an important place to play for all content providers. But iTunes is a very dangerous market in which to place all your bets. In terms of closed markets, content owners should ultimately be favoring those in which the owner's interests are more closely aligned with their own. More importantly, if we hope to see a healthier mobile content ecosystem, content owners and creators need to support, and advocate for, more open standards and markets.

Year of Pain Indeed | comScore: Smartphone Transition Sees 13% US Mobile Gamer Decline

That said... there is light at end the of the tunnel. “Although the number of mobile gamers has declined in the past year, there is reason for significant optimism about the future of this market,” said Mark Donovan, comScore SVP Mobile and senior analyst. “As the market transitions from feature phones to smartphones, the dynamics of gameplay are also shifting towards a higher quality experience. As a result, we can expect to see a profound increase in adoption of this activity, both in terms of audience size and overall engagement.”

This report basically codifies the trend a lot of us have been observing in the mobile games market... that the carrier deck, feature phone business is declining at a faster pace (in terms of overall audience and business in the short term) than the promising/exciting smartphone business has the ability to offset. I think, ultimately, we'll see the development of a smaller, more active, more satisfied, customer base with a higher propensity to consume games... who will create a bigger market. I've always believed that there were a lot of barely engaged users out there being counted as gamers, who'd accidentally play preloaded Tetris on their RAZRs every couple of months. Of course, the competition for these higher quality customers is far more intense than it ever was in the feature phone world and the price points are lower (with no carrier subscription models), so as y'all said in my poll last month, this will be a year of pain for many publishers. For those that haven't adapted well to the new smartphone paradigm... pain will only be the beginning of your worries.

Read comScore's entire release here.

Best Mobile Mixer Cocktail Napkin Ever

From the Wireless Developer Agency (WDA) party during CTIA in New Orleans in March 2005.

Glu's Titanic Gloat Is Retro Uncool

Note to mobile publicists... sometimes no news is good news or, at least, better news than news that makes your company look like its stuck in a time warp. Case in point, the recent announcement by Glu Mobile (GLUU) that it partnered (for the 6th time) with Warner Bros Digital Distribution to release a mobile game based on the film "Clash of Titans" had me double checking my Hellenic calendar to make sure it wasn't 2005, giggling a bit and, ultimately, questioning what's going on over there at Glu. In this day and age announcing a single-player, top-down fighter on Java, BREW and WinMo platforms is tantamount to a band announcing the release of a new album on 8-track... except not as funny or retro cool. Its especially weird considering recently appointed CEO Niccolo de Masi proclaimed that the company is focusing on new platforms and is attempting to wean itself from expensive licenses. I'd cut them some slack if it looked like Warner Bros was pushing the agenda, but that doesn't appear to be the case, considering they're scarcely mentioned in the release... and aren't quoted. Having just suffered through a particularly suckilicious 2009, in which they've been battered in the market and relegated to 2nd-tier publisher status, you'd think Glu would be doing everything possible to manage industry perception. But instead this game is being associated with images like the one at the top of this story, from week late coverage on Licensing.biz... which really kinda sums it up, don't you think? In this case they should probably have said nothing. Going forward, I think Glu needs to get a better handle on their messaging.

Global Wireless Data Market 2009 Update | Chetan Sharma Consulting

Phoneage Takes On CTIA & I Laugh A Little Because I'm Juvenile

Global Video Games Investment Review by Tim Merel IBIS Capital

Check out a comprehensive story on this presentation at PaidContent.

FYI - this slideshare presentation is best viewed Full Screen... which can be activated from the MENU button on the bottom left corner.

Wha'ppen At CTIA Spring 2010?

Hey guys, sorry for the extended hiatus... lots of traveling, lots of projects... all good stuff, except that it has meant that I've neglected the blog.

So what the heck happened at CTIA in Las Vegas last week... besides some age inappropriate behavior fueled by Vodka-Redbull? Here are some highlights, that I'll add to throughout the week as I think of more...

Stinkin' Badges. In a somewhat pathetic attempt to stay cool with the kids, CTIA created a purple-carpeted Apps World zone on the show floor, complete with a "Developers Clubhouse"... which turned out to be a good place for suits to adjust their insoles. As you can see from the exhibitors list there were very few top tier mobile content companies participating... weak sauce. But of course this has been the trend for years now at CTIA. As usual most content related meetings happened at suites in the Venetian or the Wynn... and maybe some in the maze of soul-less conference cubes in the convention center. Bottom line is that the show isn't really a content show at all, but it does provide a convenient, strategically located opportunity for mobile content types to see the carriers, technology providers and OEMs that the show is built around. For many, show badges are optional.

iPad, slates and tablets, oh my! Continuing the theme from CES, everyone was talking about these devices and the market potential they may create for content creators. Some OEMs were showing product publicly... some more secretly. I think App creators need to be a little cautious here. While I think some of these devices will become consumer phenomena, I don't believe that the consumer entertainment wallet is expanding. Dollars that flow into this segment will be be met with decreases in other areas... for instance, I think iPad owners will purchase Apps, games, books, subscriptions, etc. for their devices, but those same consumers will offset these costs by spending less on Apps for their iPhones and iPod touch devices. The biggest beneficiaries will be the e-publishers, who previously only had two viable distribution outlets, and the ad networks that have created products optimized for the platform. That said, early iPad sales buzz will surely help continue to fan the flames of hype.

WDA Keepin' It Classy. The venerable East Lansing, MI based mobile marketing and distribution agency Wireless Developer Agency (WDA) held one of their signature matchmaker dinners at Lawry's last Monday evening. CEO Konny Zsigo & crew put on a 1st class event, as usual, with free-flowing drinks, lots of great hand-picked, high level contacts to meet, a steak dinner, eye-candy, door prizes, transportation, etc. I've been attending these truly unique events since 2002 and I have to give WDA credit for facilitating introductions to many of my most important contacts and friends in this space. If you haven't been to one of these things before you should check it out, if you're given the opportunity. Basically it's a dance-card format, where attendees are matched up with contacts WDA believes would be valuable/interesting connections (they're usually right). An assigned, not-hard-on-the-eyes hostess makes sure you stay on task, and that everyone has plenty of beverages. Simple idea, well executed, super-effective, fun and useful.

Bad-Ass Android Devices. Best in show were the super-sexy Samsung Galaxy S, with its 4" super AMOLED screen (see image below), and the HTC EVO which Sprint is launching as the first US 4G handset. From a device perspective Android is kicking ass... particularly Microsoft's. The boys & girls from Redmond must seriously be regretting their decision to push of Windows Phone 7 to the end of the year about now. Speaking of competing operating systems, I'm not sure what Samsung's decision to release their coolest phone on Android, as opposed to their self-hyped, proprietary, bada smartphone platform means... but it should definitely give developers and publishers some pause about supporting bada.

Android Ecosystem. There continues to be a lot of vocal concern from content developers and publishers, particularly on the paid side, about anarchy on this platform. Google is doing nothing to manage the quality of the apps in Android Market, billing through Google Checkout is considered non-optimal at best, Google is putting all the customer service burden on publishers and they haven't mitigated OS fragmentation. Everyone is excited about the growing install base on Android, but as I've said before and as recent data about Nexus One sales reveals, Google has no track record as a merchant. This is a non-trivial matter when you're trying to sell physical or digital goods, and frankly Apple has set the benchmark. Google had better ramp up its capability in this area quickly. Meanwhile those operators who have created a curated, carrier-billed, store-within-a-store on Android Market are claiming they are outselling the broader store by multiples of 10 or more. Perhaps this is the path forward, and Google has no plans to sell direct in the longterm.

PUSH N900 Mod. Nokia wins most creative award for a display they put together highlighting contestants who participated in challenge to use modded N900s and its Maemo open source software to created unexpected innovations. This results (see example below) demonstrate how a connected smartphone really can be a remote control for both the virtual and physical world. This made me think a lot about the potential for a connectivity protocol that would give users the option to control his/her environment from a smartphone. Imagine if you were prompted to connect your phone to your hotel room when you walked in the door and you could use it control temperature, lights, shades, etc... or if when you walked into fast-food restaurant you could immediately order and pay from your device. The possibilities are endless.

Sausage Fests. I must say that ever since the music labels scaled back their participation in, and extracurricular events at, the show (you know, since the ringtone market crashed) it seems that CTIA's parties are more male-skewed than ever. I'm not exactly sure why this is, but I do know that it takes the dancing option off table at most of these events... transforming them into cocktail mixers with music loud enough to prevent you from hearing what anyone has to say. Just nod and smile. I spent one night running around with a crowd, chasing something cooler all over town. It was a fool's errand... but we had some fun trying. That said, props to Zed, DivX and whoever threw that party at Tao on Tuesday night for top parties of the week.

Off To CTIA

I'll be at CTIA in Las Vegas on March 22nd, 23rd & 24th... I'll provide a summary of my findings when I return.

Is Artificial Life More Artifishy Than Dishy?

LA-based(?) mobile games, apps and platform company Artificial Life (ALIF) claims to have had "a very positive year" in a press release announcing 2009 earnings issued Tuesday, but what they aren't telling you is that their Q4 clearly sucked. I'm still digging through their 10-K to determine what exactly transpired in Q4, but the more I dig and the more I talk to people in the industry about this company, the more there is about it that just don't seem quite right. Perhaps it's their 153 sq ft world headquarters (headcloset?) in LA, or perhaps it's their recent iPhone hyperbole which obfuscates the more probable sub-1mil paid download reality across their portfolio. It could be the queasiness I feel when I read that key elements of the company's 2010 strategy include über-buzzilicious initiatives in mobile green technology (whatever that is) and augmented reality. Or maybe it's just Artificial Life's oddball collection of promotional games, health care and real estate apps, as well as m-commerce and participation TV platforms, that no one I've ever met has ever used. Then again, it could be that despite regular claims of profitability, they seem to keep burning through cash. I know, I know it was just last May that I called these guys "the new hotness"... but whatevs, I think I was kinda digging Jamie Foxx's "Blame It" back then as well. At least I didn't make a $6.5mil investment in the company like 3M did back in October. One wonders what or who they'll be blamin' that on when ALIF dips back below $1 and encounters their next cash crisis.

btw - if anyone has any unique insights about this company please feel free to contact me... and, as always, comments, feedback and divergent opinions are welcome.

Potentially Cool Concept For Mobile Content Kiosks?

This neat SXSWi demo by Cynergy software of their vision for the news stand of the near future using a tablet/eReader, a Microsoft Surface and their slick software, got me fantasizing about the applications for mobile phone content. This would be a really interesting alternative distribution channel for apps at airports, retail stores, movie theater lobbies, carrier stores, etc. Dontchathink? It would provide an especially compelling shopping experience if consumers could first see a comprehensive video demo of an app's functionality prior to purchase. Android & BlackBerry content aggregators... get on it!

2010 Will Be Remembered As The Year of...

The results of my latest poll are in... and considering that 2 of the most popular responses show that readers believe that 2010 will be remembered as a year of "pain" and "consolidation" it's pretty clear, despite consumer smartphone exuberance, the general mood amongst those that provide content for those devices is pretty negative. I must say that this echoes the majority of sentiment (with several notable exceptions) that I heard from mobile games publishers at GDC this last week. Competition is intense, iPhone growth is not offsetting carrier declines, price erosion continues on iTunes and no other smartphone platforms are close to providing meaningful revenues yet. Basically we're going through the mobile equivalent of a console upgrade cycle... where consumers (particularly those with a propensity to buy mobile content) are rapidly moving to sexier hardware. The problem is that the content distribution channels are developing unevenly, with business models that don't necessarily play to the advantage of incumbent players. No doubt the landscape of top performing companies in mobile entertainment will look quite different a year from now than it does today.

Top 25 Companies In Mobile Entertainment

As always I welcome feedback and dialogue! Please let me know if I'm missing any companies or if you think that my numbers and/or rank order are incorrect. btw - revenue numbers for private companies, or divisions of companies, that haven't publicly disclosed numbers have been left blank intentionally (for now).

Does Moto Droid Handle Multi-Touch Better Than Nexus One?

My BlackBerry Is A Dysfunctional Alcoholic With Negligent Parents

My 1 year old BlackBerry Bold can't get off the sauce... it literally needs regular doses of isopropyl alcohol just to stay "functional." To make matters worse its recently taken to huffing Dust-Off to make it through the day. Many of you with BlackBerrys featuring trackballs (Bold 9000, Curve 8900, Tour 9630, 8800 series, etc.) know exactly what I'm talking about... though some of you may be enabling with denial or delusions that your BlackBerry can work through its issues without intervention. People, I'm here to tell you that it's not your fault that your handset's trackball isn't working... you don't have sweatier hands than everyone else and you don't have any greater propensity to eat onion rings before checking your Twitter feed. The problem is clearly a design flaw with the device. If that wasn't the case, then why would RIM be phasing out trackballs in favor of the "trackpad"? Of course, they should have realized that the trackball was a dumb idea from the outset, considering the laptop guys had gone down that road years before and abandoned it for the exact same reasons RIM now has.

When my trackball problems began, over the Holidays, I took my Bold into my local AT&T Wireless retail outlet. God I hate those places... employees must be trained to have that infuriating balance of fake-courtesy, utter uselessness and a sales sleaze factor that rivals that found in auto dealerships (haven't they learned anything about retailing from Apple?). True to form, while acknowledging that they had seen this problem many times, they informed me that my device was days out of warranty and that my options were to have it serviced by paying $60 & shipping it away for a couple weeks (very helpful) or (they encouraged) I should really buy a new device. I told them I was gonna take it up with RIM. So while I was at CES in early January I took the opportunity to visit the booth of the Canadian handset manufacturer and plead my case. RIM employees have obviously been counseled to avoid acknowledgement of the issue entirely... when I showed them that I was unable to use my device to track downwards they feigned curiosity and had no suggestions as to how I might fix the problem. When I asked about the thousands of internet posts about folks resorting to rubbing alcohol to clean their trackballs, all they said was that that would constitute a warranty violation.

The sad thing is that I've been a long time devotee, fan of and evangelist for BlackBerry ever since my company replaced my Palm Vx with a BlackBerry 950 pager 9 years ago. I've successfully encouraged many friends and family members to buy these devices. Even in the face of borderline fanatical iPhone worship amongst peers in the mobile entertainment space... I've stayed loyal to my BlackBerry. But that may be about to change. I really feel that RIM is long overdue in acknowledging this problem and that the right thing to do is to recall and replace all devices with slipping trackballs. I'm holding out hope, especially in light of the recent debacle with a highly respected auto manufacturer, that sense will soon prevail and that the company will take rapid action to keep their customers happy... and just keep their customers. In the very short term, I'm continuing to dose my device at least 3 times a day, while getting crazy proficient navigating around menus without the trackball. But my patience is running very thin, and I'm literally days and one Apple Store visit away from switching to an iPhone.

Hurray! Better Hurry With The Reinvention Thing

Chinese mobile music and wireless value-added services company Hurray! Holding (HRAY) announced unaudited Q4 and full year 2009 results today. Well, as I think we've seen across the board, it's been a dire couple of years for the music-focused mobile entertainment companies. This segment, which was the first to realize success with mobile content, is now crashing hard as ringtones fall out of fashion and full-track downloads fail to ignite any consumer excitement... anywhere. As recently as 2007 Hurray! was a $60mil company, and now it's just about half that size. In an attempt to stem the flow of red ink the company has diversified into the tried and true (?) mobile games space and is aggressively launching new titles (11 Q4 09, 12 planned for Q1) on China Mobile's portal... including the notable, but somewhat derivative-sounding "World of Legend - Magical Land". We'll see how it goes... but as it stands prospects for the company look less than awesome. Luckily for Hurray! they still have a decent cash reserve ($50mil in Q3 09) left over from the good ol' days, which buys them a little time to either right the ship or, perhaps for the cash alone, lure a buyer.