Broadcast Mobile TV Is A Financial Disaster

This according to a quote in a rambling Reuters article yesterday about how video Apps and mobile VOD services for premium and user generated content are killing linear mobile TV broadcast initiatives like DVB-H and FLO TV. The situation is so dire that Strategy Analytics has lowered their 2010 WW Mobile TV market size estimate from $5.4bil 3yrs ago to $280mil today (yikes!). Let's face it, other than during the rare sports or news event, how many consumers want to pay to have their grandparents' linear TV on their phone? To make matters worse, apparently even the early broadcast & satellite initiatives in markets like Japan & So. Korea that ignited the irrational exuberance for mobile broadcast TV in the West, haven't proved to be very lucrative.

I think this article makes a bit too much on the App component of this crisis. Consumers are totally agnostic about how they get mobile video content (App, WAP, widget, whatever)... all they care about is having a huge selection of content and the ability to timeshift it, share it and interact with it. For product developers to be successful they will need to focus on creating very simple ways for consumers to get & play with the content they love. One developing initiative that I'm particularly bullish on for mobile is US cable companies' plans to offer their consumers cloud DVRs as part of their TV Anywhere strategies...this means that Comcast customers could catch up on their saved shows, from any of their subscribed channels, from any computer, connected TV or mobile device whenever & wherever they want (Sling without the box). I'd pay for that. What I'm not bullish on...and there was a whole section on this in the Reuters article...is made for mobile content. I've been there and done that and there is no model I could ever find to make this financially viable in the longterm and, most importantly, the vast majority of this content is crap that no one wants to watch on any screen.

FLO TV Going D2C

Apparently even stalwart carrier partners like Qualcomm (QCOM) are beginning to realize that AT&T Mobility, Verizon Wireless, et al aren't necessarily the hottest retailers of content to consumers. According to an article in Telephony the FLO TV mobile video unit will begin augmenting their carrier wholesale business by marketing the service directly to consumers for use with in-vehicle entertainment systems and a variety of other portable wi-fi enabled devices (e.g. netbooks, smartphones, connected gaming systems, etc.). Qualcomm is, it would seem, trying to get FLO-enabled receivers embedded in a broad range of new consumer electronic devices and building plug-in receiver accessories for existing products...probably, in part, to compete with upcoming WiMax video initiatives.

As mentioned in previous posts, FLO TV gives users a high quality mobile TV viewing experience, with full length (though old school linear) programming from NBCU, CBS, MTV Networks, Fox, ESPN, etc...but has gotten very limited traction due to partner operators' seeming indifference to the product (very few handsets support it) & lack of reasonable geographic coverage. The latter issue should be resolved as they pick up a bunch of network spectrum immediately after the broadcast TV digital transition on June 12th, and obviously this D2C initiative is an attempt to fix the former.

Now the big question...is a company deeply rooted in the technology infrastructure business like Qualcomm going to be any better of a retailer of this mobile entertainment product than the operators? Let's hope so. I recommend they use Apple, as opposed to say...Nokia, as a benchmark.

MobiTV On Track To Generate Over $400mil In 2009

Silicon Alley Insider reported today that MobiTv, Inc. has grown it's monthly subscribers to more than 7mil. The Emeryville, CA based mobile streaming video pioneer has been building their base (in partnership with carriers) since 1999...and recently has seen some impressive growth with 2mil adds in the last 6mos. As the article points out this still only represents 3% of US subscribers, but it's a heck of a lot better than the numbers hyped broadcast technology competitors like FLO TV are seeing. Moreover at $9.99 per sub they're likely going to see over $800mil at retail in 2009, or between $400mil & $500mil in revenue...which would propel them into the Top 5 of all mobile content companies worldwide.

Uh Oh!, Verizon's Voyager Successor Has No FLO

According to a story on EngadgetMobile, Verizon Wireless's imminent & highly anticipated replacement for the LG Voyager, the LG VX11000 enV Touch, will not support V CAST Mobile TV (Verizon's flavor of Qualcomm's FLO TV mobile broadcast product). Does this mean that the #1 US operator is already phasing-out the product, which launched in Q1 2007, as they get ready to rollout their LTE 4G services later this year? Probably. Frankly I've aways questioned Verizon's commitment to FLO TV...they never marketed it very well (or much) and only ever made it available on a few devices. Other issues that have dogged the service, which does give the user a good viewing experience, are a limited selection of channels (with no time-shifting capability) and very uneven network coverage (doesn't work at my house...doesn't work on road trips). My guess is that Verizon has well under a million V CAST Mobile TV subscribers paying the additional $15/mo (on top of the unlimited data fee) and that the churn rate is pretty high....so the revenue loss would be pretty insignificant in the scheme of Verizon Wireless's overall numbers. Assuming V CAST Mobile TV is indeed going bye-bye, hopefully someone at the carrier will read my post from Wednesday and think twice before replacing the service with another proprietary, subset of real TV service, that is destined to fail. Instead, let apps like SlingPlayer Mobile and (eventually) freeVOD sites like Hulu show subscribers how good TV can be on mobile over a high speed data network.

Sling Almost Has The Video Genie Out of the Bottle

After months of wrangling, rumors and posturing the highly anticipated SlingPlayer for iPhone is finally available for download in the App Store...but not before AT&T Mobility took a hammer to it's knee-cap. For now the $29.99 iPhone version called SlingPlayer Mobile will only work via Wi-Fi and not over AT&T's 3G network. The operator claims that the App would use too much network capacity and potentially prevent other customers from having a good 3G experience.

You know, it's all about principles...except that BlackBerry Bolds, Palms and N-series Nokia devices can use Sling applications over the network and nevermind that other broadcast Apps like CBS's TV.com don't seem to be a problem. Some have suggested that this limitation is a slap in the face to AT&T's U-verse competitor EchoStar, who acquired Sling Media back in 2007. I think it may be more about appeasing FLO TV partner Qualcomm (who must hate this) and some of the IP owners who benefit from that service. As usual, no one seemed to care very much when it was just a few early-adopter types who happened to figure out that there was a Sling application for their Centros...but on the highly visible App Store platform everything changes. Non-mobile people actually talk about iPhone Apps.

I think the real big news here is that SlingMedia is on the verge of catalyzing a movement that will make proprietary mobile streaming & broadcast services to the handset an anachronism. I have no doubt they will soon get access to AT&T's network for this App...and that by virtue of the aforementioned iPhone effect the service will quickly get unprecedented popular/industry mindshare. This will inevitably lead to an explosion of imitators, innovators & Boxees on iPhone/AT&T who will make it easier and easier for consumers to push/pull TV and other rich media content to/from handsets...and demand by consumers on other carriers to get those same services. I see product offerings like V CAST, MobiTV, Sprint TV, GoTV and FLO TV disappearing as consumers opt to watch hundreds of channels of real TV (including recorded TV), wherever/whenever, for the price of a set-top box and a one time app fee. This movement will intensify as the MSOs and Satellite guys get into the mix with their own Sling-type offerings...and as some of these services migrate to the mobile web, once Adobe (or whomever) gets a mobile video browser plug-in working properly and meaningfully deployed. Whew!...can't wait. Ultimately, the effect of Sling on iPhone will be big win for the consumer...more TV, more often, for cheap. The same can't be said for the carriers, who'll soon be wondering where their video subscription revenue went, or for the IP owners, who'll soon be wondering where their mobile licensing window went.

FLO TV Gets A Seasoned Handango

According to a Fierce Wireless story yesterday, mobile industry vet Bill Stone (former AirTouch, Vodafone, Verizon Wireless, Amp'd) has left his positon as CEO of smartphone app portal Handango to lead Qualcomm's (QCOM) money losing MediaFLO USA FLO TV mobile broadcast business (-$202mil on $12mil revs in FY 2008). He replaces Qualcomm vet Gina Lombardi. The linear service is up and running on Verizon & AT&T in the US, but is only available on a limited number of handsets.

At Handango another industry veteran, Alex Bloom (former Verizon, Motricity) will step up to be CEO.