Broadcast Mobile TV Is A Financial Disaster

This according to a quote in a rambling Reuters article yesterday about how video Apps and mobile VOD services for premium and user generated content are killing linear mobile TV broadcast initiatives like DVB-H and FLO TV. The situation is so dire that Strategy Analytics has lowered their 2010 WW Mobile TV market size estimate from $5.4bil 3yrs ago to $280mil today (yikes!). Let's face it, other than during the rare sports or news event, how many consumers want to pay to have their grandparents' linear TV on their phone? To make matters worse, apparently even the early broadcast & satellite initiatives in markets like Japan & So. Korea that ignited the irrational exuberance for mobile broadcast TV in the West, haven't proved to be very lucrative.

I think this article makes a bit too much on the App component of this crisis. Consumers are totally agnostic about how they get mobile video content (App, WAP, widget, whatever)... all they care about is having a huge selection of content and the ability to timeshift it, share it and interact with it. For product developers to be successful they will need to focus on creating very simple ways for consumers to get & play with the content they love. One developing initiative that I'm particularly bullish on for mobile is US cable companies' plans to offer their consumers cloud DVRs as part of their TV Anywhere strategies...this means that Comcast customers could catch up on their saved shows, from any of their subscribed channels, from any computer, connected TV or mobile device whenever & wherever they want (Sling without the box). I'd pay for that. What I'm not bullish on...and there was a whole section on this in the Reuters article...is made for mobile content. I've been there and done that and there is no model I could ever find to make this financially viable in the longterm and, most importantly, the vast majority of this content is crap that no one wants to watch on any screen.

MobiTV On Track To Generate Over $400mil In 2009

Silicon Alley Insider reported today that MobiTv, Inc. has grown it's monthly subscribers to more than 7mil. The Emeryville, CA based mobile streaming video pioneer has been building their base (in partnership with carriers) since 1999...and recently has seen some impressive growth with 2mil adds in the last 6mos. As the article points out this still only represents 3% of US subscribers, but it's a heck of a lot better than the numbers hyped broadcast technology competitors like FLO TV are seeing. Moreover at $9.99 per sub they're likely going to see over $800mil at retail in 2009, or between $400mil & $500mil in revenue...which would propel them into the Top 5 of all mobile content companies worldwide.

Uh Oh!, Verizon's Voyager Successor Has No FLO

According to a story on EngadgetMobile, Verizon Wireless's imminent & highly anticipated replacement for the LG Voyager, the LG VX11000 enV Touch, will not support V CAST Mobile TV (Verizon's flavor of Qualcomm's FLO TV mobile broadcast product). Does this mean that the #1 US operator is already phasing-out the product, which launched in Q1 2007, as they get ready to rollout their LTE 4G services later this year? Probably. Frankly I've aways questioned Verizon's commitment to FLO TV...they never marketed it very well (or much) and only ever made it available on a few devices. Other issues that have dogged the service, which does give the user a good viewing experience, are a limited selection of channels (with no time-shifting capability) and very uneven network coverage (doesn't work at my house...doesn't work on road trips). My guess is that Verizon has well under a million V CAST Mobile TV subscribers paying the additional $15/mo (on top of the unlimited data fee) and that the churn rate is pretty high....so the revenue loss would be pretty insignificant in the scheme of Verizon Wireless's overall numbers. Assuming V CAST Mobile TV is indeed going bye-bye, hopefully someone at the carrier will read my post from Wednesday and think twice before replacing the service with another proprietary, subset of real TV service, that is destined to fail. Instead, let apps like SlingPlayer Mobile and (eventually) freeVOD sites like Hulu show subscribers how good TV can be on mobile over a high speed data network.

KA-POW! TV.com Launches iPhone App in Hulu's Face

Last Thursday CBS's TV.com launched a free streaming video application in the iTunes App Store. By virtue of launching first, TV.com has won the first mobile battle in its intensifying new media TV war with rival Hulu, owned by NBCU & Fox. The service features some full length episodes of Star Trek, CSI, The Young & the Restless, MacGyver as well as news and clips from CBS, Showtime, CW and CNET TV. The service works over wifi as well as AT&T via 3G or EDGE. Currently there is no advertising on the App...but I suspect that will change quickly. Gizmodo's post raises an interesting issue...at what point do these network Apps begin to cannibalize iTunes's TV show revenues (especially on shows that live in both places) and at what point do they begin to over burden AT&T's data pipeline? Also, considering that the TV.com App is being rolled out across iTunes stores worldwide (though currently full episodes are not available outside the US), you have to wonder at what point this service begins damaging CBS's relationships with international broadcast licensees.

The App was built using the vTap video search, browsing and playback solution from Andover, MA based Veveo (had never heard of them before). This is only the 2nd broadcast App for iPhone, following France24 Live! launched by MobiClip (formerly Actimagine) a month ago, as reported here.