Gartner Mobile OS Market Share Forecast Through 2014

Click here to read Gartner's release associated with this table.

BlackBerry Eyed Peas: Check RIM's Sixy New OS

Mossberg Talks About The Rise of the Super-Smartphone

My BlackBerry Is A Dysfunctional Alcoholic With Negligent Parents

My 1 year old BlackBerry Bold can't get off the sauce... it literally needs regular doses of isopropyl alcohol just to stay "functional." To make matters worse its recently taken to huffing Dust-Off to make it through the day. Many of you with BlackBerrys featuring trackballs (Bold 9000, Curve 8900, Tour 9630, 8800 series, etc.) know exactly what I'm talking about... though some of you may be enabling with denial or delusions that your BlackBerry can work through its issues without intervention. People, I'm here to tell you that it's not your fault that your handset's trackball isn't working... you don't have sweatier hands than everyone else and you don't have any greater propensity to eat onion rings before checking your Twitter feed. The problem is clearly a design flaw with the device. If that wasn't the case, then why would RIM be phasing out trackballs in favor of the "trackpad"? Of course, they should have realized that the trackball was a dumb idea from the outset, considering the laptop guys had gone down that road years before and abandoned it for the exact same reasons RIM now has.

When my trackball problems began, over the Holidays, I took my Bold into my local AT&T Wireless retail outlet. God I hate those places... employees must be trained to have that infuriating balance of fake-courtesy, utter uselessness and a sales sleaze factor that rivals that found in auto dealerships (haven't they learned anything about retailing from Apple?). True to form, while acknowledging that they had seen this problem many times, they informed me that my device was days out of warranty and that my options were to have it serviced by paying $60 & shipping it away for a couple weeks (very helpful) or (they encouraged) I should really buy a new device. I told them I was gonna take it up with RIM. So while I was at CES in early January I took the opportunity to visit the booth of the Canadian handset manufacturer and plead my case. RIM employees have obviously been counseled to avoid acknowledgement of the issue entirely... when I showed them that I was unable to use my device to track downwards they feigned curiosity and had no suggestions as to how I might fix the problem. When I asked about the thousands of internet posts about folks resorting to rubbing alcohol to clean their trackballs, all they said was that that would constitute a warranty violation.

The sad thing is that I've been a long time devotee, fan of and evangelist for BlackBerry ever since my company replaced my Palm Vx with a BlackBerry 950 pager 9 years ago. I've successfully encouraged many friends and family members to buy these devices. Even in the face of borderline fanatical iPhone worship amongst peers in the mobile entertainment space... I've stayed loyal to my BlackBerry. But that may be about to change. I really feel that RIM is long overdue in acknowledging this problem and that the right thing to do is to recall and replace all devices with slipping trackballs. I'm holding out hope, especially in light of the recent debacle with a highly respected auto manufacturer, that sense will soon prevail and that the company will take rapid action to keep their customers happy... and just keep their customers. In the very short term, I'm continuing to dose my device at least 3 times a day, while getting crazy proficient navigating around menus without the trackball. But my patience is running very thin, and I'm literally days and one Apple Store visit away from switching to an iPhone.

WW Handset Metrics Q4 2009

Check out the full story on FierceWireless

Dredging The CESpool For Cool

So, I'm back from Las Vegas with a lighter wallet, no voice, potential liver damage and some decent business prospects. Good show, good times. I've aways contended that it's hard to get perspective on the entire beast that is CES when you're on the ground, living it... but for what it's worth here are the things that I thought were cool, interesting or notable from the slice of the show I experienced:

• First, props to the nurse at the First Aid Station at the Las Vegas Convention Center, who by virtue of providing me with an isopropyl soaked towelette was ultimately much more helpful rectifying my latest BlackBerry Bold trackball crisis than the charming yet useless folk in the RIM booth.

• 3D TV is way cooler than I expected, especially the full HD version (1080p in both eyes). But, it is still hard to fathom kickin' it in active 3D glasses along with 22 of my closest friends during a Superbowl XLV, or a Superbowl L party for that matter. I think Samsung is on to something with the glasses-less solution. The good news in the short term is that excitement around this niche should make that sweet non-3D 55" LED set I'm coveting much cheaper.

• Thanks Nokia booth guy for the great demo of the N900. Slick device. I particularly liked the social networking topscreen widgets (like MotoBlur) and thought the Flash 9 enabled browser was awesome. Now go and get yourselves a carrier subsidy you sillies.

• Slates, tablets, eReaders galore... some like the Kindle except better, like Plastic Logic's Que proReader, and some that are more rich media friendly the the HP slate. There's a lot of froth and fear in this product sector that I'm convinced (and reliable sources I spoke with agreed) is about to be defined (on Jan 27th) by Apple.

• I'm happy to report that based on the balance of parties there's evidence to suggest the AVN is virile of spirit (if not of revenue) in the face of potentially withering challenges that industry faces from an onslaught of free digital services and its cultural destigmatization. Didn't get to spend any quality time at that show, but I did get to attend one of the aforementioned parties courtesy of some cool folk at Gawker, and I was gonna say it didn't suck at all, but...oh never mind....

• Android, Android, Android... the exuberance continued into the show following Google's Nexus One event last week. The fact that Flash 10 was announced to be coming to Android browsers didn't hurt. (Hopefully this will push Apple over the hump with Adobe). On the Android handset front I heard some strong positive buzz from industry insiders about the Sony Xperia X10 device (see demo below), that will unfortunately sell like 2 units in the US if the SE can't get any carrier love.

• I like to say I'm into architecture, so I thought my mind would be blasted by the newly opened City Centre property... but no so much. I felt that it took some modern concepts from a dream team of kick-ass designers and plugged them into a tired LV model (set back hotels, promenade mall, etc.). Instead of feeling original and exuberant, it felt formulaic and strangely anachronistic given its embrace of super-premium Eurotrash retailers and it's cookie-cutter (though dark) casino. On top of that, several locals I spoke to expressed hatred for the already notoriously crap attitude of the staff. I did have an Eric Schmidt sighting there on Friday, which felt as much like a check-the-box as the property itself.

• Samsung blew it on the mobile front by not showing their highly anticipated Bada S8200 featuring their Bada OS (yeah! another smartphone OS?). I think they had the most impressive booth at the show, but overall I must say their handset selection made me long for another Red Bull (without Vodka this time).

• Unexpected superawesomeness in the form of the Schlage LiNK demo in the RIM booth. They have system where you can use your BlackBerry (or, presumably, any other web enabled phone) to remotely access and activate your door locks, temperature controls, lights and remote cameras in your house. While my initial thoughts tended toward hijinks, in retrospect this system may be one of the more useful innovations demonstrated at the show.

• Lenovo had some bad-ass looking netbooks, including the tabletesque, capacitive screen S10-3t. But you know, in terms of netbooks that Nokia Booklet 3G that was deployed all over the Nokia booth maybe the netbook eyecandy du jour.

• There was a lot of excitement about the Boxee Box (made by D-Link) that allows consumers to access the internet content on their TVs without a computer. Uh, er... wasn't that called WebTV? I'm not convinced I should be excited.

• Sprint's Overdrive 3G/4G portable hotspot device has a lot of potential...like Verizon's MiFi but faster. However, it's not even worth considering in LA til almost 2011, when their WiMax network rolls out here.

I'll add more if I think of them... in the meantime I'd love to hear what impressed you. Let me know.

Amazon MPS Could Enable Real App Store Competition

A couple of weeks ago, just before CTIA in San Diego, Amazon.com made an announcement I somehow missed in the cacophony of show announcements, but that just may come to be regarded as a watershed moment in the history of mobile commerce. The Seattle e-retailer, said in a press release, that it was opening up its 1-Click checkout service to mobile developers and distribution channels through a series of APIs and an "optimized mobile browser experience." They call the service Amazon Mobile Payment Service or Amazon MPS.

So why is this important? One of the key components of Apple's phenomenal, meteoric rise to success in the mobile content space has been their legacy billing infrastructure... iTunes. Think about it, how many companies have your credit card on file and have authorization to bill that card with one click of a mouse or the D-pad? Remember that the seamless, established billing relationship, inherent in operator billing, was what was sexy about mobile content (post-dotcom) in the first place... but unfortunately, it eventually became clear that operators didn't know how to sell content. Now that every handset OEM, Google, tout le monde is opening up an "app store" to prove that it can be a digital merchant, this basic component has gone missing. I think the notion that consumers will feel comfortable surrendering their credit card and opting-in to future billing in order to facilitate their first purchase on Nokia's Ovi Store, or that they'll gladly link that tired ole PayPal account (where's that password anyway?) to Blackberry App World, is hopeful at best. For most folks Amazon, like Apple, is in the billing circle of trust.

So finally it looks like there's a weapon in the arsenal that will allow the most ambitious mobile content retailers to do battle with Apple, without the carrier... at least on the billing front ('cause they still need to build a compelling retail experiences, by the way). The whole mobile content ecosystem (content owners, developers, publishers and consumers) is screaming for meaningful challengers to Apple's dominance. Without competition Apple will have free reign to define consumers' content options and dictate wholesale and retail pricing. My recommendation to Nokia, Samsung, RIM, etc. is to seriously consider Amazon MPS to help them fight the good fight in the interest of at least being a strong second player (because it ain't bad being Target)... or don't, and leave it to those savvy guys at Handmark, who have already implemented it, or to the series of application creators I've spoken with recently (who currently sell via WAP and online) who are keen to deploy this purchase mechanism within their own specialty retail stores.

BlackBerry App World Top 25 Games

Here's the latest Top 25 mobile games list from App World in the US. You'll notice that the average price of $5.55 is substantially higher those in the iTunes store, which got as low as $1.47 in my July 24th survey, but have been creeping up a bit according to more recent analysis from PocketGamer. EA Mobile looks really dominant here (as it is in iTunes) with 7 titles, followed by a small smartphone-focused gaming shop from Minneapolis called Concrete Software, with 4 titles (I love that each new platform has it own small publisher success stories). I hear a lot of anecdotal positive buzz from publishers about App World... but, I'm not sure whether they're just talking it up to counter iPhone hype, whether it's wishful thinking that this will be the next big distribution platform or whether they're making real money from RIM. The latter seems hard to believe, because the Canadian OEM has done an abysmal job marketing this service to consumers. Try this experiment...which I have many times...ask any of your non-mobile industry friends with a BlackBerry if they've ever used or even heard of App World. Report back.

btw -- what is it with bubbles and BlackBerry?

Industry Has A Microsofty For Windows Mobile OS

There were a lot of posts this past week about the world's un-sexiest mobile OS...Windows Mobile. This is a product that gets absolutely no love despite being pretty solid from a technical and UI/UX perspective. Some of this can be attributed to the favorite sport of the tech press, Microsoft-bashing. Some of it is simply the curse of being an OS that's been around the block a few times (its roots are PocketPC 2000)...so for many it's associated with non-phone PDAs like the HP iPAQ (about as cool as grandma's socks). Some of it has to do with unfortunate partnership decisions MS made with handset manufacturers...most notably by taking their first big jump into the smartphone fray with the super-suckilicious Motorola Q. Company president Robbie Bach basically fessed up to this, according to a story in The Business Insider, at an analyst day event in Seattle earlier this week. And then of course there is the new mobile OS hotness, Android which is hooking up with all the sexy handsets (and some Moto devices as well). Om Malik, who has never been a fan of Windows Mobile fan, reported on GigaOM that Google's Android OS is beginning to pose a real threat to Microsoft despite having a fraction of its install-base (11% in US). My feeling is that Windows Mobile still has a lot of potential game, but the key to getting consumers and the industry re-interested will have a lot to do with how they execute on a number of key events in the next couple of months. First they need to get the delayed Windows Mobile OS 6.5 (which MobileGamesBlog is reporting may be re-branded Windows Phone) launched in early Q4 and complement it with the simultaneous launch of a well stocked (they plan 600), well designed Windows Mobile Marketplace app store (think Xbox Live Arcade). Next they need to hit their April 2010 launch target for Windows Mobile 7 (by which time they should have thousands of apps in their store) and announce a bunch of key handset relationships. Then they need to buy RIM.

BlackBerry 9550 Storm 2 with SurePress Coming This Fall?...Where's The WiFi?

RIM Jobs...BlackBerry Throws iPhone A Curve

The Register is reporting that an NPD survey of the US smartphone market in Q1 2009 has revealed that RIM's workhorse BlackBerry Curve outsold the exalted iPhone. Here's the Top 5 in order:

1. RIM BlackBerry Curve
2. Apple iPhone 3G
3. RIM BlackBerry Storm
4. RIM BlackBerry Pearl
5. T-Mobile G1

This specific result & the fact that RIM jumped to ~50% share of the US smartphone market can be attributed to: 1) Verizon Wireless's Buy One, Get One promotion on BlackBerry devices during the Feb & Mar 2009; 2) iPhone sales cooling to 1.6mil units (down from 2.4 in Q4 2008) as the faithful eagerly await the announcement of the next model; 3) RIM's diverse, quality and still aspirational product line.

btw -- Palm has totally dropped off the map...that Pre can't come soon enough.

Another interesting data point in this NPD survey highlights a trend I've been tracking for months now...the transition of US consumers from "dumb phones" to smartphones. According to NPD the US handset market for smartphones jumped from 17% in Q1 2008 to 23% in Q1 2009...which is great news for those companies that provide mobile entertainment experiences for consumers. This trend will continue...if not quicken over the next year. Frankly, I think within 5years it's possible that the 12key mobile handset goes the way of the dodo.

3 Key Takeaways From CTIA Spring 2009

1) Buggy BlackBerry App World store.

RIM finally launched its highly anticipated BlackBerry App World store to kick-off CTIA last week. Many of us in the mobile content space downloaded the application within hours of it being available (I did it right before RIM Founder/Pres/Co-CEO, Mike Lazaridis' uninspired/ing keynote on April 1st). Overall the application has a nice UI, but that was offset by myriad glitches including seemingly random Search results, a Games folder that claimed 171 titles but only rendered 1 (to the benefit of MTV Networks) & connectivity problems. Things improved as the week wore on for me, but others must have had recurring issues because RIM has already rolled out 2 updates to the software (versions 1.0.0.27 & 1.0.0.28). My favorite App so far is the music recognition tool Shazam (available in UK 100 years ago , Apple months ago), which is available for a free trial period. But I must say, in digging through the catalog the current offering seems more similar to that of a carrier deck (or Magmic's Bplay site) than the iTunes App Store. Besides creating an exciting retail environment for consumers, and building consumer awareness, the biggest challenge BlackBerry App World will face will be on the billing front. RIM elected to use PayPal...which could prove super-klugy (and may be a deal breaker) for those consumers who don't have existing accounts.

2) Nokia N97 Widget Homescreen

Got a demo of the N97 at the Nokia booth on the showroom floor. Pretty damned impressive device. Really attractive form factor, rockstar specs and a nice tactile QWERTY keyboard...however the thing I liked the best was a very cool, customizable, widget-driven desktop/homescreen. Very, very slick looking. Unfortunately, once you leave the homescreen you're subject to Nokia's classically arcane UI and navigation. The device will be available in the US in Summer or Fall...but not with a carrier (or its subsidy) so expect a price somewhere between $500 - $1,000 (yikes!).

3) Content Providers Abandoned The Showroom Floor

It seemed that no one I knew from the mobile content side spent any meaningful time on the showroom floor of CTIA. Many didn't even get a pass to the show, instead opting to have meetings in hotel conference rooms, suites, bars or restaurants. Those who did venture to the convention center would find a small, somewhat pathetic cluster of content provider mini-booths stuck in a far corner of the South Hall (which you can only find by accident). Sad. Clearly CTIA has to do something drastic to re-energize the content component of the show or risk losing that constituency of exhibitors & attendees altogether. In the meantime I'm establishing a competing, content focused mobile show at the Parasol Up bar at The Wynn.

Do I Want My RIM TV?

According to NewTeeVee RIM (RIMM) is preparing to launch a mobile full-length TV episode service for its BlackBerry devices as early as CTIA next week. Word is that this is an over-the-air download service (via wifi only) with a monthly subscription fee. Content is allegedly coming from multiple networks...but no one seems to know who they are (GSN & Fine Living Network, perhaps). It is also unclear whether this service will integrate into the upcoming BlackBerry App World mobile content store.

Boy, I hate to damn this thing before it sees the light of day...but I'm pretty skeptical about its potential for success. My first concern is that it only works on wifi...which limits the # of addressable devices to Bold, Storm and future products AND is really cheating the "everywhere" promise of mobile TV. The next thing I don't like is that it's a download service as opposed to a streaming service. I'm really impatient & I gotta watch my stories now! How long is it going to take me to download an episode of Lost or The Office? What happens if I have to leave the wifi hotspot during the download process? Seems like a hassle to me and it kills the spontaneity factor. My third gripe is that this is apparently a device only product. One of the things that makes TV on iTunes work for me is that I can watch the episodes on my big-ass computer monitor if I like...and I do like. My last, and biggest concern, is that I am not convinced the RIM has any more of clue than a carrier, Nokia or Samsung about how to sell entertainment content to consumers. They've gotta make the process elegant and easy...they've gotta create a great retail experience like those guys in Cupertino. All that said, I would love to be pleasantly surprised by the final product. Stay tuned.

Whole Lotta Handset Hullabaloo

Two stories getting major play today across the trades and blogosphere:

1) Apparently DoCoMo has stopped sales of RIM's BlackBerry Bold in Japan, where 30 customers have complained about the keyboard overheating during the recharging process. Odd that this is only happening in Japan. Hopefully this won't derail RIM's nascent business in that market...where foreign handsets (including the iPhone) have had a hard time getting any market traction.

2) UK operators are reportedly freaking out about Nokia's plans to preload the Skype client in their highly anticipated N97 and future N-Series handsets. No one who reads this blog is surprised by this development, right? (Note the first bullet in my post from February 18th).

Could There Be A RIMSoft WindowBerry in Your Future?

Silicon Alley Insider suggested in an article today that Microsoft (MSFT) should purchase Research In Motion (RIMM), while the stock is cheap, if it really wants to be a serious player in mobile. RIM is trading near it's 52 week low at $37.42, down from the $150 range last June. The benefits to Microsoft seem pretty obvious given their inability to get serious traction with their Windows Mobile OS and their limited revenue opportunity per handset as a software only play. The primary benefit to RIM would be the ability to leverage Microsoft's financial resources in order to maintain or grow its position in the increasingly crowded and competitive smartphone market. Interesting idea...but I am very concerned that there could be a painful culture clash in a combined company that could stifle innovation on the device side. If not executed artfully, such a merger could create substantial opportunities for Nokia, Acer, Dell, etc.

RIM Baking Delicious BlackBerry StoreFront Pie

In anticipation of RIM's (RIMM) planned March 2009 opening of it's StoreFront applications marketplace (think iTunes App Store or Android Market) the Canadian smartphone manufacturer began accepting submissions to their developer site on January 19th. Early word is that StoreFront will be managed more loosely than carrier decks or the iTunes App Store -- with restrictions primarily being related to bandwidth usage. Additionally, all apps must support OTA download and purchase via PayPal. The good news for developers is that the revenue split is a generous 80/20 in favor of the developer! Some reports have expressed concern about the inherent lack of "application memory" space in current BlackBerry devices...but I'm sure our friends to the north are on this as their devices become more consumer and media focused.