THQ Wireless Quarterly Revenue CY 2006 - 2010

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Update: Top 20 Movie & TV iPhone Games By Revenue

Update Nov. 2, 2010: Based on some welcome feedback I've tweaked my model very slightly and added one major title to this list... EA Mobile's The Simpsons Arcade. As a result of this combination of changes, Sony's iZombieland has dropped out of the Top 20. Also, just a quick clarification, since it's come up several times... my model uses the estimated average price over an app's lifetime (not the current price, shown above) to calculate estimated revenue.

It's been about 11 months since I last looked at how movie & television based game titles were faring in the App Store... so I figured it was about time to update my spreadsheet. This time 'round I'm showing my estimate of the Top 20 performing paid iPhone titles currently available in the US instance of the store, sorted by total publisher revenue. I've elected to hide my current title-by-title revenue estimates, but what I will tell you is that I think they range from $600k up to about $3mil, and the average for the lot is about $1.3mil.

One of the most shocking things to note is that 9 out the 10 titles on my December 2009 list are still in this Top 20... and the Top 3 are exactly the same. There are a handful of new strong performers, including, on the film side, Avatar and Iron Man 2, both from Gameloft and Predators from Chillingo. From TV, the new stars are Family Guy and, in the biggest surprise on the list, Dexter from Marc Ecko Entertainment (who knew they made games, right?). But in general my take is that paid movie and TV game titles aren't playing a particularly important role in the App Store, and are certainly not the revenue stars of the show... as is evidenced by not one of them currently appearing in the Top 150 of Top Grossing Games. This clearly presents challenges to studio/network digital & licensing groups, who are undoubtedly saddled with unrealistic expectations about how their properties should be performing in a climate of smartphone exuberance.

As usual please let me know if I've missed any titles, and I'll make the appropriate changes.

Can THQ Wireless Fly Again After Bumpy Descent?

THQ Inc. (THQI) reported their fiscal Q3 2010 (calendar Q4 2009) earnings this morning and surprised some analysts with a small profit. However, as you can see from the chart above (calendar quarters in millions) the once substantial mobile unit, THQ Wireless, continued to see its business shrink... and its $2.29mil now only represents 0.64% of THQ's quarterly revenues from all platforms. Total mobile revenue for calendar 2009 was $14.8mil, which puts them a notch below companies like Capcom, I-Play and Hands-On in my estimates. That's a long bumpy descent from the $30mil level they were at in 2006. But that might all be about to change according to a story at PocketGamer.biz, which reports that the company is in the process of realigning itself to focus on digital distribution channels like X-Box Live Arcade... and more interestingly for y'all, iPhone & iPad. I like that idea in principle, but it's hardly original... and we've heard similar refrains from THQ in the past. Let's see if they can commit this time and find ways to leverage their unique access to high-quality IP (e.g. Star Wars) to create some competitive advantage. What do you guys think?

Top 10 Movie/TV Games For iPhone By Revenue?

Here's my stab at the Top 10 movie or TV based mobile games for iPhone and iPod touch, ranked by my latest guesstimate of the revenue that they've generated from inception to date... based on my notion that 1% of game downloaders post a review. In the spreadsheet above EAP = Estimated Average Price over the lifetime of the game on the iTunes platform, which I inferred from price movements listed on Appshopper.com. PubRev? = Publisher Revenue (caveated) which is calculated by multiplying EAP x Rvws/1% x 70% (publisher share of retail). Let me know if you think this is accurate and how well you think this model explains the performance of other iTunes App titles.

Assuming the data above is correct, it points to the value of publishers maintaining a higher price point for Apps. As you can see, Star Wars: The Force Unleashed is basically tied for the most revenue with The Price Is Right despite having 43% fewer downloads than the game show title... because it's retail price has been 75% higher on average. Actually, I must say, I was pleasantly surprised to see how much price testing publishers are doing on the platform. With a couple of exceptions, the price of each title on this list has changed (up & down) more than 3 times since launch.

By the way, it looks like Montreal based Ludia, which currently is only publishing 2 Paid Apps on the platform, made a solid bet with Fremantle's The Price Is Right.

THQ Wireless Almost Finnish?

THQ Wireless (a division of struggling THQ) is going to focus exclusively on games for smartphone platforms and will move all its production to its Universomo studio in Finland according to IGN. The move will result in 100 layoffs in the US, UK and Germany. Currently the division generates about $20mil in revenue and is not profitable. The frenzy to jump on the smartphone bandwagon is becoming worrisome...and it makes one wonder how many games publishers those platforms can sustain and whether some companies stand to benefit by continuing to support Java & BREW platforms.