Big 4 US Carrier Metrics Compared Q3 2010

The top four US mobile operators currently represent about 92% of the 293mil US wireless subscriber connections.

I've highlighted the top performer in each category. Note Sprint's Data ARPU is in italics because they haven't provided an update to that number since Q1 2010... guess they have nothing to brag about.

You can link to my previous carrier metrics spreadsheets here.

US Carrier Metrics Compared Q2 2010

The Big 4 carriers represent over 92% of US wireless subscriber connections.

I've highlighted the top performer in each category. Note Sprint's Data ARPU number is in italics because it's from last quarter... for some reason they chose not to break out Data ARPU for Q2 2010 (hmmm).

For fun, take a look at how these numbers compare with Q4 2008.

Verizon Top 10 New Titles For 2010... So far

Well it's E3 time again, and while mobile games publishers & industry pundits continue to perseverate about the iPhone, Verizon Wireless took the opportunity to remind the world that they keep on keepin' on. Apparently their deck still has over 350 games, and lest you believe it's still all about Tetris, Bejeweled & PacMan (which it kinda is) they issued a release highlighting their Top 10 NEW titles for the 1st half of 2010. Shout out to 2 of my favorite small publishers, GOSUB 60 & Sonic Boom for making the list... I hope this is translating into decent downloads/revenue. Hey, while most publishers manically pile their games on top the 10s of thousands of others in the App Store or into the difficult to monetize anarchy that's Android Market, I think it's a legit, smart and potentially lucrative counter programming strategy for some to focus on the carrier decks... where the addressable user bases are still substantial, billing mechanisms work, stores are uncluttered/edited, price points are high and recurring subscriptions endure.

Q4 2009 Big 4 US Mobile Operator Key Stats

Q4 2009 Big 3 US Mobile Operator Key Stats

What doesn't matter?: Coverage map pissing matches & 4G

What does matter?: iPhone... and BlackBerry

What may matter in 2010?: Android

Dredging The CESpool For Cool

So, I'm back from Las Vegas with a lighter wallet, no voice, potential liver damage and some decent business prospects. Good show, good times. I've aways contended that it's hard to get perspective on the entire beast that is CES when you're on the ground, living it... but for what it's worth here are the things that I thought were cool, interesting or notable from the slice of the show I experienced:

• First, props to the nurse at the First Aid Station at the Las Vegas Convention Center, who by virtue of providing me with an isopropyl soaked towelette was ultimately much more helpful rectifying my latest BlackBerry Bold trackball crisis than the charming yet useless folk in the RIM booth.

• 3D TV is way cooler than I expected, especially the full HD version (1080p in both eyes). But, it is still hard to fathom kickin' it in active 3D glasses along with 22 of my closest friends during a Superbowl XLV, or a Superbowl L party for that matter. I think Samsung is on to something with the glasses-less solution. The good news in the short term is that excitement around this niche should make that sweet non-3D 55" LED set I'm coveting much cheaper.

• Thanks Nokia booth guy for the great demo of the N900. Slick device. I particularly liked the social networking topscreen widgets (like MotoBlur) and thought the Flash 9 enabled browser was awesome. Now go and get yourselves a carrier subsidy you sillies.

• Slates, tablets, eReaders galore... some like the Kindle except better, like Plastic Logic's Que proReader, and some that are more rich media friendly the the HP slate. There's a lot of froth and fear in this product sector that I'm convinced (and reliable sources I spoke with agreed) is about to be defined (on Jan 27th) by Apple.

• I'm happy to report that based on the balance of parties there's evidence to suggest the AVN is virile of spirit (if not of revenue) in the face of potentially withering challenges that industry faces from an onslaught of free digital services and its cultural destigmatization. Didn't get to spend any quality time at that show, but I did get to attend one of the aforementioned parties courtesy of some cool folk at Gawker, and I was gonna say it didn't suck at all, but...oh never mind....

• Android, Android, Android... the exuberance continued into the show following Google's Nexus One event last week. The fact that Flash 10 was announced to be coming to Android browsers didn't hurt. (Hopefully this will push Apple over the hump with Adobe). On the Android handset front I heard some strong positive buzz from industry insiders about the Sony Xperia X10 device (see demo below), that will unfortunately sell like 2 units in the US if the SE can't get any carrier love.

• I like to say I'm into architecture, so I thought my mind would be blasted by the newly opened City Centre property... but no so much. I felt that it took some modern concepts from a dream team of kick-ass designers and plugged them into a tired LV model (set back hotels, promenade mall, etc.). Instead of feeling original and exuberant, it felt formulaic and strangely anachronistic given its embrace of super-premium Eurotrash retailers and it's cookie-cutter (though dark) casino. On top of that, several locals I spoke to expressed hatred for the already notoriously crap attitude of the staff. I did have an Eric Schmidt sighting there on Friday, which felt as much like a check-the-box as the property itself.

• Samsung blew it on the mobile front by not showing their highly anticipated Bada S8200 featuring their Bada OS (yeah! another smartphone OS?). I think they had the most impressive booth at the show, but overall I must say their handset selection made me long for another Red Bull (without Vodka this time).

• Unexpected superawesomeness in the form of the Schlage LiNK demo in the RIM booth. They have system where you can use your BlackBerry (or, presumably, any other web enabled phone) to remotely access and activate your door locks, temperature controls, lights and remote cameras in your house. While my initial thoughts tended toward hijinks, in retrospect this system may be one of the more useful innovations demonstrated at the show.

• Lenovo had some bad-ass looking netbooks, including the tabletesque, capacitive screen S10-3t. But you know, in terms of netbooks that Nokia Booklet 3G that was deployed all over the Nokia booth maybe the netbook eyecandy du jour.

• There was a lot of excitement about the Boxee Box (made by D-Link) that allows consumers to access the internet content on their TVs without a computer. Uh, er... wasn't that called WebTV? I'm not convinced I should be excited.

• Sprint's Overdrive 3G/4G portable hotspot device has a lot of potential...like Verizon's MiFi but faster. However, it's not even worth considering in LA til almost 2011, when their WiMax network rolls out here.

I'll add more if I think of them... in the meantime I'd love to hear what impressed you. Let me know.

Recent Mobile Tweets

So are you following me on Twitter? If not, here's a sampling of my recent tweets...

• Get some Verizagra and trade hairdo for can do http://ping.fm/uWvui Wonder if Apple will think it's funny

• PG.biz reports Nokia closing London flagship store http://bit.ly/5YVlGg Thought that was a brand not profit exercise... guess not

• likes Twitter's new preview mobile site (mobile.twitter.com)... cause you don't need an App for that

• is bullish on Layar! RT @beamadelica Augmented reality Beatles on Abbey Road crossing - nice! http://tinyurl.com/ybvjlw9

• thinks synergies, more often than not, are illusory

• 'Twas the night before Christmas and Android was shipping | People's interest in iPhone rejections were slipping... http://bit.ly/4XSWVc

• Cabana Mobile: James Lipton & LG: Don't Sext Your Junk http://bit.ly/8kjFKq

• RT @gizmodo My $62.47 Royalty Statement: How Major Labels Cook the Books with Digital Downloads http://gizmodo.com/5417318/

• What do you think of my notion that 1 review gets posted per 100 Paid iPhone App downloads? http://bit.ly/5sd9VZ

• RT @PocketGamer Is this the end for BlackBerry? Lily Allen says F You http://bit.ly/8IhSBM

Verizon Announces Its Top 10 Cougars In Bikinis

Well, actually, during CTIA on Wednesday Verizon Wireless announced its top mobile games during the June through September 2009 time period. But there ain't no denying that most of these Summer hotties have been 'round the block more than a few times... and I must say that I'm deeply conflicted between respect, disbelief and revulsion that they're still clearly finding a substantial audience of new devotees at the expense of new talent (who clearly aren't working it right). Here's the list...

1. Tetris
2. Bejeweled
3. The Sims 3
4. Guitar Hero World Tour
5. PAC-MAN by Namco
6. Scrabble
7. World Series of Poker Pro
8. Where's Waldo?
9. The Oregon Trail
10. MONOPOLY Here & Now

Unsure Whether iPhone Helped AT&T in Q2 2009?

Mobile Content Mezze Platter

There's a bunch of stuff going on...but no over-riding theme that's struck my fancy yet this week. So, in the meantime here's a list of stories from around the mobile content blogosphere for y'all to snack on...

• Verizon Wireless jumps on the smartphone app store bandwagon (GigaOM)
• Apple now claims 1.5bil App downloads...and implies it's unbeatable (Mobile Entertainment)
• EA creates 99cent iPhone game studio called 8lb Gorilla...which will further hasten price erosion on Apple & every other mobile platform (touchArcade)
• Could Nokia's weakness in the US mean that it may become the GM of handset manufacturers? (Wired)
• GAMEVIL's Baseball Superstars mobile game franchise surpasses 10mil downloads! (Wireless Gaming World)
• With King.com launching on iPhone, does that mean that skill-based game wagering is coming to that platform? (IGN.com)
• It can't be a good sign when heavily-funded UK voice-to-text company SpinVox is trying save costs by paying employees with stock (mocoNews.net)

FLO TV Going D2C

Apparently even stalwart carrier partners like Qualcomm (QCOM) are beginning to realize that AT&T Mobility, Verizon Wireless, et al aren't necessarily the hottest retailers of content to consumers. According to an article in Telephony the FLO TV mobile video unit will begin augmenting their carrier wholesale business by marketing the service directly to consumers for use with in-vehicle entertainment systems and a variety of other portable wi-fi enabled devices (e.g. netbooks, smartphones, connected gaming systems, etc.). Qualcomm is, it would seem, trying to get FLO-enabled receivers embedded in a broad range of new consumer electronic devices and building plug-in receiver accessories for existing products...probably, in part, to compete with upcoming WiMax video initiatives.

As mentioned in previous posts, FLO TV gives users a high quality mobile TV viewing experience, with full length (though old school linear) programming from NBCU, CBS, MTV Networks, Fox, ESPN, etc...but has gotten very limited traction due to partner operators' seeming indifference to the product (very few handsets support it) & lack of reasonable geographic coverage. The latter issue should be resolved as they pick up a bunch of network spectrum immediately after the broadcast TV digital transition on June 12th, and obviously this D2C initiative is an attempt to fix the former.

Now the big question...is a company deeply rooted in the technology infrastructure business like Qualcomm going to be any better of a retailer of this mobile entertainment product than the operators? Let's hope so. I recommend they use Apple, as opposed to say...Nokia, as a benchmark.

Mo'Bullet Snacks

• Mobile Industry cognoscenti continue to discuss the catastrophic launch of Nokia's Ovi Store
• Verizon Wireless announces it will start supporting Java for smartphones on its network
• KongZhong (KONG) hits 52 week high & announces new focus on mobile games
• Twistbox/Mandalay Media (MNDL) CFO Jay Wolfe steps down abruptly & is replaced by Russell Burke
• Multiple reports about depleted inventories of the current iPhone model fan rumors/speculation that Apple will announce a new model next week
• D7 demo of the Palm Pre, the announcement of iTunes support & concerns over June 6th launch-day inventory levels further enhance the hotness factor of this device
• Mobile Streams (MOS) continues to enhance it's porn portfolio with the launch of new UK D2C site Porncasa.mobi

Uh Oh!, Verizon's Voyager Successor Has No FLO

According to a story on EngadgetMobile, Verizon Wireless's imminent & highly anticipated replacement for the LG Voyager, the LG VX11000 enV Touch, will not support V CAST Mobile TV (Verizon's flavor of Qualcomm's FLO TV mobile broadcast product). Does this mean that the #1 US operator is already phasing-out the product, which launched in Q1 2007, as they get ready to rollout their LTE 4G services later this year? Probably. Frankly I've aways questioned Verizon's commitment to FLO TV...they never marketed it very well (or much) and only ever made it available on a few devices. Other issues that have dogged the service, which does give the user a good viewing experience, are a limited selection of channels (with no time-shifting capability) and very uneven network coverage (doesn't work at my house...doesn't work on road trips). My guess is that Verizon has well under a million V CAST Mobile TV subscribers paying the additional $15/mo (on top of the unlimited data fee) and that the churn rate is pretty high....so the revenue loss would be pretty insignificant in the scheme of Verizon Wireless's overall numbers. Assuming V CAST Mobile TV is indeed going bye-bye, hopefully someone at the carrier will read my post from Wednesday and think twice before replacing the service with another proprietary, subset of real TV service, that is destined to fail. Instead, let apps like SlingPlayer Mobile and (eventually) freeVOD sites like Hulu show subscribers how good TV can be on mobile over a high speed data network.

Q4 2008 US Carrier Metrics

Fierce Wireless posted a series of handy metrics today for the tier 1 US carriers...here is a summary of Q4 2008 data with the addition of some Data ARPU numbers I reported earlier:

(Subs & adds in millions)

Not @MWC & Apparently Not Missing Much

OK I'm a little bitter that I'm not in Barcelona...but until my Adsense revenues turn into Adollar$ I am just not going to be flying, hoteling, conventioning and wine/dining/dancing like fool in Spain on my own dime...CTIA in Vegas, maybe. That being said the news out of the show has been pretty unspectacular donchathink?:

• Nokia (NOK) announced it's widely anticipated Ovi Store for applications and announced that it would preload Skype on to upcoming N-Series devices (a move sure to piss off carriers)
• Microsoft (MSFT) announced it's new Windows Marketplace for Mobile available with its new Windows Mobile 6.5 OS (does anyone aspire to have a Windows Mobile device?)
• Besides a new HTC handset for Vodafone, Google's Android has been a total bust.
• RealNetworks (RNWK) took over the backend of Verizon Wireless's V Cast streaming video service from thePlatform
• Qualcomm's (QCOM) MediaFlo is sucking wind in the US and they vow to do things differently in Europe
• Acer and maybe Dell are entering the smartphone fray
• And the biggest story of all...the GSMA announced that 17 carriers and handset manufacturers were going to create a universal phone charger by 2012 (cue Kool & the Gang)
• btw -- where hell has RIM/BlackBerry (RIMM) been hiding?...did they purposely keep a low profile at MWC because of their SEC issues?

Anything else I'm missing?

Verizon and AT&T Earnings: Quick Wireless Facts

Verizon Wireless (joint venture of Verizon & Vodafone)
1) 80 mil subscribers including AllTel - making it #1 US operator
2) Total Data ARPU up 27.9% vs Q4 2007, non-SMS Data ARPU up 52%
3) 65% of subscribers have a 3G handset
4) BlackBerry Storm has sold over 1 million units in Nov 21, 2008 launch
5) LTE 4G services still on track for commercial launch in 2010


AT&T Mobility (a division of AT&T Inc.)
1) 77 mil subscribers - making it #2 US operator
2) 1.9 mil 3G iPhones activated in Q4 2008, 4.3 mil since launch...but subsidies ($450 mil in Q4) on the device hurt the bottom line
3) 40% of new iPhone users came from outside AT&T Mobility
4) Data ARPU up 35.7% vs Q4 2007
5) AT&T was quiet about it's LTE 4G plans, but previously suggested commercial launch in 2012

Verizon Unleashes $250 Non-3G Femtocells

The much anticipated femtocell product from the #1 US operator is now available for sale according to this AP story. Verizon Wireless Network Extender is basically a $250 device that behaves like a WiFi router, but instead emits a mobile wireless signal...creating a mini celltower with a 5,000 foot range for the home . The idea is that the pervasive, quality connections the product facilitates will motivate consumers to drop their landlines. Of course, by virtue of having this product Verizon Wireless is basically admitting that some subscribers aren't getting the full support of that dorky guy and his posse from the TV ads. The other non-good thing about this product is that it broadcasts a 1x RTT CDMA signal as opposed to EV-DO so it won't help with 3G services like V CAST.