Thursday, December 31, 2009

Some Predictions For 2010

  • The Nexus One and myriad other Android devices will launch with varying degrees of fanfare, but the Google devices in aggregate and the Android Market will continue to pale in the shadow of iPhone/iTunes as a consumer event due to inconsistent marketing, klugy app billing and OS fragmentation
  • Mobile marketing will graduate from the experimental stage, and become a core strategy component for several enlightened global brands
  • Several established mobile games publishers will either be acquired or file for bankruptcy protection... companies that could be in play during 2010 include: Hands-On Mobile, I-Play, Twistbox, Digital Chocolate and perhaps Glu Mobile
  • Apple will finally strike a deal with Adobe that will allow iPhone users to access content built in Flash through the browser, creating a boon for Hulu, Vevo, YouTube, MovieClips, et al
  • Apple will make eBooks and eMagazines available through iTunes for their upcoming tablet... but they will also be available for iPhone and touch
  • Nokia will scrap it's Comes With Music offering, will continue to struggle to make Ovi a meaningful consumer proposition and will see declining market share as it gets squeezed by Apple, RIM and Android devices on the smartphone front and by low cost Chinese manufacturers in developing markets
  • LTE & WiMax services will continue to roll out slowly, but 4G won't be a significant consumer event during 2010
  • Google Googles will move beyond Android and quickly establish itself as the world's most popular augmented reality application... leaving companies like Layar & GetFugu in its dust
  • The current Top 5 companies in my Cabana Mobile Entertainment Top 20 by Revenue (Zed, Index Mobile, UMG Mobile, MobiTV & Buongiorno) will all see mobile revenues decline during 2010. Smaller App-focused publishers will see the greatest revenue gains
  • Carrier-based App stores will make consumers yawn, but on a positive note they'll benefit the coffers of several advertising and identity/design agencies
  • An application developer, a credit card company and a major retailer will collaborate to launch the first commercial in-store mobile transaction service in the US
More to follow throughout the day...

2 comments:

  1. I think you're pretty much on target across the board, though I do think re#1 that we'll see Android marketshare grow significantly and within striking distance of iPhone (though not the iPhone+iTouch footprint) by end of year, though there will not be anything close to the consitency of experience/App retail juggernaut that Apple enjoys.

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