Monday, January 18, 2010
The chart above features the market shares of the top US mobile advertising companies (based on their % of revenue in a $287mil market) as included in the report “Mobile Ad Market Share Estimates Show Yahoo and Microsoft Must Follow” released by industry analyst IDC in the wake of the $750mil Google-AdMob deal. This report was met by some controversy, as Mobile Marketer revealed in a story at the end of November. Companies like Jumptap immediately claimed that their revenue was "drastically understated." But, of course, neither Jumptap nor any of the other companies covered stepped up to reveal what they were actually making... because that's not how private companies in the mobile space roll (fantasy is usually sexier than reality). Frankly, I usually assume all whisper and analyst numbers in this space are inflated and I think this report is no exception.... I don't think AdMob made $40mil in 2009. Nonetheless, the report, suggests correctly I believe, that with the AdMob deal done (and now with AOL/Quattro) both Microsoft and Yahoo (who apparently once courted Millennial) are in the hunt for acquisitions in early 2010 so they can challenge Google's potential 24% market share. I'm looking forward to lots of crazy valuations... which could be a good thing in the short-term if the acquiree's VCs realize handsome paydays and, consequently, are motivated to inject more risk capital into the mobile content market.